Forecast @ 20 June 02:57 ET (Groups)
26m 46s runtime · $3.34
Spain lead at 14.8%, France second at 13.0%, England fourth at 10.8%. Ratings from weighted international results sit well below the betting market on France, so we split that gap across four worlds. England's squad-quality correction closes most of their model-market gap, but rests on a club-quality hypothesis rather than direct evidence, and the uncertainty is reflected in the published width.
- Spain0.0%
- France0.0%
- Argentina0.0%
- England0.0%
- Brazil0.0%
- Germany0.0%
- Portugal0.0%
- Colombia0.0%
Where we differ from the market
Our forecast 6.5%Market 5.9%+0.6pp above
We apply a discount to Germany's model strength to reflect a historical pattern of underperforming tournament ceilings in knockout stages. Consensus odds sit slightly below our mixture, supporting the direction of this adjustment.
Our forecast 13.0%Market 18.6%-5.6pp below
Our ratings give France about 9 fewer percentage points than the de-vigged betting market. The 3-1 win over Senegal was consistent with both the full-premium and partial-premium worlds, providing no discrimination between them. The weighted spread from model baseline to full market deference is the honest expression of this unresolved gap.
Our forecast 10.8%Market 12.7%-1.9pp below
Our ratings give England fewer percentage points than the betting market. We apply a +0.085 premium for club-quality players, but this rests on a defensive hypothesis and may not survive played results. Saka is being managed for an Achilles issue and is unlikely to start the Ghana fixture, a mild near-term risk with limited long-run title impact per the priced delta.
Different plausible worlds
Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.
- 35%Using our international-results ratings
- 35%Granting France the full market premium
- 15%France earns only the structural club-quality uplift
- 15%Portugal cohesion drag retained
Distribution of winning the World Cup by team
Spain lead on international-results ratings with a clear group path and no material injury news.
14.8% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Spain's fitted strength from weighted internationals places them first. A 0-0 draw with Cape Verde was absorbed in the refit without a strength update. No selection or availability news changes the picture today.
Sources considered by the agent
- 1.Morocco captain Achraf Hakimi ordered to stand trial on rape charges after losing court appeal - The Athleticcitednytimes.com
- 2.Raphinha injury: Brazil star leaves World Cup match vs Haiticitedeu.usatoday.com
- 3.World Cup 2026: A day of tears, scuffles & history as injury mars Canada's moment - BBC Sportcitedbbc.com
- 4.World Cup 2026: Scotland fans take over Boston; Pochettino looking for spies; Koné injury – live | World Cup 2026 | The Guardiancitedtheguardian.com
- 5.World Cup 2026: Bukayo Saka unlikely to start for England until Panama game, Thomas Tuchel says | Football News | Sky Sportscitedskysports.com
- 6.Neymar won't play for Brazil vs. Haiti in race to be fit for World Cup knockout stages - ESPNcitedespn.com
- 7.World Cup 2026 live updates: U.S. beats Australia 2-0 to clinch spot in knockout round; Brazil, Morocco also victoriouscitednbcnews.com
- 8.World Cup Day 9 recap: U.S. wins its group after Paraguay win - Los Angeles Timescitedlatimes.com
- 9.Morocco star Achraf Hakimi will stand trial in a rape case, French appeals court confirms | AP Newsapnews.com
- 10.2026 World Cup: Schedule and scores - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 11.World Cup 2026 Power Rankings after one gameespn.com
- 12.Spain’s biggest strength has become a headache. Who should they build their midfield around? - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 13.Achraf Hakimi to stand trial in rape case, French court confirmsespn.com
- 14.Has three winning hosts supercharged this World Cup? Was Neymar worth the risk? Day eight recap - The Athleticnytimes.com
- 15.Why Is Raphinha No Longer Playing for Brazil vs Haiti at the World Cup?sports.yahoo.com
- 16.Raphinha Injury Update: Brazil Star Suffers Scare Against Haitiheavy.com
- 17.Raphinha injured and substituted off for Brazil in 40th minute against Haiticryptobriefing.com
- 18.The 11 Biggest World Cup Questions After the First Round of Group Play - The Ringertheringer.com
- 19.World Cup 2026: The celebration photo that sums up my relationship with Mbappe - Olivier Giroud - BBC Sportbbc.com
- 20.World Cup injury tracker: Neymar, Lamine Yamal and Christian Pulisic latest updates | The Independentindependent.co.uk
Internal forecast workings
1Step 1
Day 10 reference-frame audit complete. All four prior worlds carry with support. England's -3.8pp baseline drift is entirely bracket/path refit mechanics with no residual strength signal; the +0.085 squad-value premium closes 95% of today's model-market gap and remains the defensible estimate. Franc…
- TITLE VIEW TABLE (model vs market, gap placement vs p10-p90 noise band): france 9.4% model / 18.6% market / gap -9.18pp ABOVE p90=12.5% STRUCTURAL | england 7.3% / 12.7% / -5.32pp ABOVE p90=9.7% STRUCTURAL | spain 16.0% / 13.7% / +2.34pp within band | argentina 12.7% / 10.5% / +2.15pp within band |…
- STRUCTURAL GAP TEAMS (outside p10-p90, material for mixture): france (market 18.59% > p90 12.49%, gap 9.18pp model-deficit), england (market 12.67% > p90 9.70%, gap 5.32pp model-deficit), colombia (market 1.56% < p10 3.38%, gap 3.88pp model-surplus), belgium (market 1.67% vs p10 1.81%, borderline 2.
- PRIOR WORLD 1 - this scenario (w=0.35): CARRY unchanged. England +0.085 DeltaDist impact at today's lower base = +5.04pp (6.1x noise floor 0.82pp), bringing England to ~11.89% vs market 12.67%. Germany -0.046 discount still market-directionally supported (model 8.92% vs market 5.86%). Both perturbation…
- PRIOR WORLD 2 - this scenario (w=0.35): CARRY unchanged. France structural gap persists at 9.18pp (widened from 9.09pp yesterday); market remains above France p90=12.49%. No negative France evidence. England premium retained and material in this world too. France baseline drift of -3.5pp (brief) refle…
- PRIOR WORLD 3 - france_partial (w=0.15): CARRY, monitor for trim. France gap widened (not compressed), increasing posterior probability the market is simply right. No new negative France evidence means the 'market overweights sentiment' hypothesis cannot be confirmed. Weight could be trimmed from 0.
2Step 2
Raphinha branch collapsed (below floor / unwarranted). All four prior worlds carry forward unchanged at their prior weights. Mixture artifact registered with four worlds: this scenario 0.35, this scenario 0.35, france_partial 0.15, portugal_structural 0.15. Top titles: Spain 15.2%, France 13.
- Raphinha branch COLLAPSED. Mechanism adjudication: (A) single-fixture MatchRatePerturbation for Scotland match (away_goals_delta -0.15) yields Brazil delta -0.196pp vs noise floor 0.252pp -- below floor, immaterial. (B) Full-tournament StrengthPerturbation (-0.05 DeltaDist) yields -1.486pp and survi…
- England path drift of -3.8pp confirmed by as bracket/path refit mechanics (group-stage results absorbed into qualification routes and bracket position), not a residual strength signal. No new England branch manufactured.
- All four prior worlds carry forward with support from : this scenario (0.35) with England +0.085 DeltaDist (+3.53pp at 14x floor) and Germany -0.046 DeltaDist; this scenario (0.35) with France full implied delta +0.169 (structural 9.18pp gap confirmed, widened from prior day); france_partial (0.
- Mixture spread: France width 14.1pp at 2.18x parameter floor (France axis is the dominant live uncertainty, correctly earning two worlds). England width 8.2pp at 1.57x floor (squad-value premium earns genuine width). Brazil width 6.6pp at 1.06x floor (just above irreducible noise -- Raphinha collaps…
- Axis note: France model-vs-market disagreement is the primary live axis (two worlds: this scenario grants full premium, france_partial caps at club-quality component). England squad-value premium is the secondary axis (expressed within all four worlds as DeltaDist). Portugal cohesion uncertainty is a…
3Step 3
Branch branch-raphinha-injury COLLAPSED on evidence grounds, not floor grounds. The partial-tournament downgrade scenario (delta -0.025 DeltaDist) yields -0.802pp at 3.18x the noise floor -- it mechanically clears -- but is unwarranted: carries proposed_delta=0.0 with no confirmed severity…
- Partial-tournament Brazil downgrade (Raphinha, -0.025 DeltaDist): -0.802pp, 3.18x floor -- mechanically clears but COLLAPSED on evidence grounds.
- Evidence ceiling: proposed_delta=0.0 (suspected hamstring, no confirmed severity, assessment pending, expiry 2026-06-21). No official timeline. Cannot justify tournament-scope world.
- Historical 5-week hamstring precedent (March 2026) is speculative extrapolation from unconfirmed severity; does not constitute evidence for a partial-tournament world.
- Market already prices Raphinha/injury concern: Brazil model surplus = +1.25pp above consensus (bookmakers and Polymarket both below model). this scenario world already brings Brazil to ~6.38%.
- Adding a Brazil downgrade world would (a) violate evidence ceiling from , (b) double-count market discounting already present in this scenario world.
4Step 4
France arbitration complete. The 3-1 defeat of Senegal (, proposed_delta=0.0) is non-discriminating evidence between france_partial and this scenario: France was a 0.41-unit strength favorite over Senegal, the posterior strength update is only +0.0147 (implying ~0.77pp title delta, 3.0x floor…
- ARBITRATION VERDICT: Weights unchanged. France 3-1 Senegal () has likelihood ratio ~1 between france_partial and this scenario worlds; it is a fully predicted outcome under both. No weight shift is evidenced.
- POSTERIOR STRENGTH UPDATE: +0.0147 strength units from 3-1 win (prior_sd 0.1225 -> posterior_sd 0.1210, barely moves). Implied title delta ~0.77pp (3.0x floor), but this is non-discriminating because both worlds predict France wins easily over Senegal (strength gap 0.41).
- FRANCE_PARTIAL DELTA PRICED: +4.43pp at 17.6x noise floor (0.252pp). This world captures the honest 15% probability that market sentiment exceeds the defensible club-quality uplift. The rejection condition (negative France evidence) was not triggered.
- MARKET_BASE DELTA PRICED: +9.61pp at 38.2x noise floor. France market gap 9.18pp unchanged; both bookmakers and Polymarket confirm (legs_disagree_pp=0.33pp, below floor).
- MIXTURE SPREAD: France mean=12.9%, p10=6.19%, p90=20.33%, width=14.1pp, vs_floor=2.18x. Width is earned (2.18x parameter floor of 6.5pp). World separation: this scenario=8.90%, france_partial=13.53%, this scenario=18.35%, portugal_structural=8.89%.
