Forecast @ 18 June 06:52 ET (Groups)

34m 20s runtime · $3.86

Spain lead our ratings at 15.5%, France second at 12.0% against a much higher market price, England fourth at 11.2% on squad-value uplift after beating Croatia 4-2. Portugal drop to sixth on team-wide attacking failure vs DR Congo. Norway and Spain Yamal scenarios were both checked and found immaterial.

% win WC

Spain0.0%
France0.0%
Argentina0.0%
England0.0%
Brazil0.0%
Portugal0.0%
Germany0.0%
Colombia0.0%

Where we differ from the market

Our forecast 6.3%Market 5.5%+0.8pp above
Germany's Elo rating sits near a 20-year low and the mixture applies a discount across all worlds, with the market-anchored world taking the deeper discount. A pre-mortem challenge noted the discount is straining as the baseline has drifted upward, but no result or news crossed the threshold to reverse it.
Our forecast 12.0%Market 18.1%-6.1pp below
William Saliba returned to full training and is expected to start, removing the acute defensive-risk trigger that previously anchored a collapse scenario. Our ratings give France a defensible club-quality uplift across three of four worlds, but the full market price is granted only in the 20% market-anchored world. The remaining gap is a disagreement between our international-results ratings and market pricing.
Our forecast 11.2%Market 12.5%-1.3pp below
England beat Croatia 4-2 with goals from Kane, Bellingham and Rashford; the result is already in the model. The squad-value uplift for Bellingham, Saka and Rice is priced across all four worlds. Our ratings give England 11.2% vs the de-vigged market at 12.5%, a gap the mixture straddles given uncertainty about how club-level quality translates to tournament outcomes.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

30%Using our international-results ratings
20%Using the betting market consensus
30%Assuming France's market premium partially reflects sentiment
20%Assuming Portugal's attacking structure is compromised

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead our forecast, the highest of any team.

15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our international-results ratings place Spain clearly ahead. The market sits about 2.5pp below our number, which the analysis prices as a real but modest gap -- not enough to open a negative stance. A scenario where Yamal is benched or pulled was assessed but did not cross the significance threshold, so Spain's rating stands on the underlying squad strength.

Assuming France's market premium partially reflects sentimentFrance earns only the defensible club-quality uplift; the rest of the market premium is treated as sentiment not grounded in measurable squad quality. Built on Saliba fitness confirmation removing collapse risk while leaving the over-pricing question open.

30%

Using our international-results ratingsWeighted match results from internationals, with an England squad-value correction and an Elo-trend discount for Germany. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.

30%

Using the betting market consensusDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France's full premium granted; England squad-value premium retained. Cannot tell if France sentiment is over-extrapolated.

20%

Assuming Portugal's attacking structure is compromisedPortugal's DR Congo draw priced as a cohesion failure affecting the whole attack, not just Ronaldo. Structural drag persists through Group K and into the knockouts under this world.

20%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

1Step 1
Day 8 two-reference state read (50k sims, seed=42). Baseline noise floor for perturbation impact is 24.4pp cross-team; per-team binomial SE is 0.1-0.3pp, so all gaps above 0.5pp are statistically real. Eight model-vs-blend gaps are material; three are sub-floor. All three prior worlds remain structu…
- TABLE 1 -- Model vs Market vs Prior (50k sims seed=42, market prices as of 2026-06-18T10:18): France 9.56% / 18.08% / 15.73% blend / 11.51% prior | England 8.33% / 12.53% / 11.47% / 9.92% | Spain 16.27% / 13.52% / 14.20% / 15.47% | Argentina 12.12% / 10.64% / 11.14% / 9.62% | Germany 8.89% / 5.51% /…
- MATERIAL GAPS (|sim - blend| >= 0.5pp, noise floor): France -6.17pp (model far below market; open ; structural), England -3.14pp (model below market; open ; squad-value question), Germany +2.48pp (model above market; Elo-discount tension), Colombia +2.19pp (model overage; staleness can…
- SUB-FLOOR GAPS (|sim - blend| < 0.5pp, treated as noise): Netherlands +0.44pp, Portugal -0.39pp, Croatia +0.39pp…
- FRANCE ( open): Gap has WIDENED. Sim 9.56% vs market 18.08% (-8.52pp raw, -6.17pp vs blend). France baseline drifted DOWN -1.95pp vs yesterday's mixture, while market holds at 18%. The this scenario world (40% weight, France delta +0.05) anchors the modal thesis correctly and has strengthen…
- ENGLAND ( open): Gap PERSISTS. Sim 8.33% vs blend 11.47% (-3.14pp). Baseline drifted DOWN -1.59pp vs prior mix. Both this scenario and this scenario worlds carry England premium (+0.08 delta). Squad-value question remains live.
2Step 2
Registered ( JSON, 4 worlds: this scenario 30%, this scenario 20%, france_partial 30%, portugal_structural 20%). England mixture mean 11.31%, France 12.21%, Spain 15.72%. England width 8.2pp is 1.57x the parameter floor -- width is earned, not padded. Three live branches adjudicate…
- REGISTERED ARTIFACT: (.json), 4 worlds, noise floor 0.416pp…
- WORLD WEIGHTS: this scenario 30%, this scenario 20%, france_partial 30%, portugal_structural 20%…
- MIXTURE TITLE PROBS (top 5): Spain 15.72%, France 12.21%, Argentina 11.74%, England 11.31%, Portugal 6.59%…
- ENGLAND: mixture mean 11.31% (p10=7.26%, p90=15.44%), width 8.20pp, vs_floor=1.57. Squad-value delta +0.067 (sd=0.013) applied across all worlds. Market case: Bellingham/Saka/Rice club quality genuinely exceeds international-results model. Model case: result () is in baseline; magnitude is…
- BRANCH AUDIT -- branch-portugal-attacking-structure-failure: PRICED as 20% world. Portugal delta -2.39pp vs noise floor 0.244pp (9.8x floor). Forward-looking structural drag from Ronaldo/Fernandes cohesion failure (, ). Market Portugal gap is sub-floor (-0.58pp) so the market does no…